Over-reliance on the first piece of information offered (the anchor) when forming subsequent estimates, with insufficient adjustment away from it — even when the anchor is arbitrary or irrelevant.
In intelligence analysis
- An early estimate, a premature headline figure, or a source's first claim can anchor the final judgement.
- Once an anchor is set, subsequent reporting is assimilated toward it rather than independently appraised.
- Anchoring interacts with Overconfidence Bias: the anchored figure is then held with unwarranted certainty.
Countermeasure
- Key Assumptions Check to surface the initial figure as an assumption rather than a fact.
- Generate independent estimates before seeing others', then reconcile (avoids inheriting the anchor).
Related
- Cognitive Bias — the taxonomy this bias sits within
- Overconfidence Bias — anchored estimates are over-held
- Estimative Language — calibrated, uncertainty-aware phrasing