The tendency to systematically over-estimate the accuracy or calibration of one's own judgements and knowledge. It is the gap between how confident an analyst feels and how often they are actually right.
In intelligence analysis
- Analysts express higher confidence than their track record warrants — stated "high confidence" does not match historical hit rate.
- Poor calibration is invisible without a written, scored record of prior judgements.
- Compounds most other biases: a confirmation-inflated judgement is then defended with unwarranted certainty.
Countermeasure
- Calibrated Estimative Language — explicit, disciplined confidence scales applied to every judgement.
- Maintain a record of prior judgements and score them (calibration / Brier-style scoring).
- Explicitly canvass why the judgement might be wrong before assigning confidence.
Related
- Cognitive Bias — the taxonomy this bias sits within
- Estimative Language — the calibrated-vocabulary fix
- Hindsight Bias — inflates confidence about the past, seeding overconfidence about the future