(Heuer's "vividness criterion"; Nisbett & Ross 1980) The tendency to over-weight concrete, emotionally striking, or graphic information over abstract but more diagnostic statistical (base-rate) information.
In intelligence analysis
- A single dramatic case report out-weighs aggregate statistical reporting in perceived significance.
- Visceral imagery or a compelling narrative biases threat assessment away from the base rate.
- A primary driver of the Availability Heuristic — vivid material is more easily recalled.
Countermeasure
- Base-rate discipline: anchor on aggregate/frequency data, then adjust for case specifics.
- Structured weighting of sources so a source's colour does not substitute for its reliability (Admiralty Rating).
- Explicitly separate narrative signal from statistical signal when drafting judgements.
Related
- Cognitive Bias — the taxonomy this bias sits within
- Availability Heuristic — vividness feeds recall ease
- Admiralty Rating — source-level grading that tempers vividness