(Heuer) Assuming that the other actor shares the analyst's own rationality, values, and constraints — projecting one's own frame of reference onto the subject. A classic source of strategic surprise.
In intelligence analysis
- Assuming an adversary will do what "we" would consider rational, under-estimating cultural, doctrinal, or ideological drivers.
- Discounting that the subject may have different information, incentives, or tolerance for risk.
- Particularly dangerous when analysing actors whose decision culture differs sharply from one's own.
Countermeasure
- Red-team the subject's perspective on its own terms — model the decision from inside their culture and incentives.
- Key Assumptions Check to surface the hidden assumption that "others think like us".
- Subject-matter study of the actor's doctrine, history, and internal logic.
Related
- Cognitive Bias — the taxonomy this bias sits within
- Structured Analytic Techniques — Key Assumptions Check, red-teaming
- Groupthink — mirror-imaging is often shared and unchallenged in groups